Ethereum Death Cross Flashes at $1,745: Historical Data Points to Bottom

Ethereum's 50-day moving average crossed below its 200-day moving average on Monday, confirming a so-called "death cross" on the daily chart with ETH trading at $1,745. The bearish technical signal has historically preceded significant price declines, but a closer look at Ethereum's past death cross formations tells a more complicated story — one that has occasionally marked capitulation lows rather than the beginning of extended downturns.

The death cross formed as Ethereum has shed roughly 45% of its value since the start of 2025, dragged lower by broader macroeconomic pressure, declining decentralized finance activity, and persistent outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs in the United States. Daily trading volume on major exchanges averaged $12.3 billion over the past week, down from highs above $30 billion recorded in late 2024.

**What the Historical Record Shows**

Ethereum has printed a death cross four times in its trading history. The signal appeared in January 2018, March 2020, June 2021, and January 2022. In three of those four instances, ETH reached its cycle bottom within 60 days of the crossover. The March 2020 death cross, triggered during the COVID-19 market crash, formed when ETH was trading near $130. The asset bottomed at $88 shortly after and subsequently rallied more than 2,000% over the following 18 months.

The January 2022 death cross proved less forgiving. ETH continued falling for another eight months after the signal appeared, ultimately bottoming near $880 in June 2022 as the Terra/LUNA collapse and Three Arrows Capital insolvency compounded selling pressure across the market.

Analysts at on-chain research firm Glassnode noted this week that current realized losses among short-term holders are approaching levels last seen at the 2022 bottom, a metric that has historically coincided with exhausted sellers. The Market Value to Realized Value ratio, a gauge of unrealized profit and loss across the network, currently sits at 0.89, placing it in territory the firm classifies as "undervalued" based on prior cycle data.

**Structural Concerns Remain**

Not everyone is reading the setup as a buying opportunity. Ethereum's network revenue has declined sharply since the Dencun upgrade in March 2024, which reduced transaction fees on layer-2 networks but simultaneously compressed fee income on the base layer. Annualized protocol revenue has fallen below $500 million, a figure that has prompted some analysts to question ETH's valuation relative to competing layer-1 blockchains.

Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $326 million across the past two weeks, according to data from SoSoValue, suggesting institutional demand has not materialized at the pace many anticipated following their July 2024 launch.

**Key Levels to Watch**

Technical analysts are watching $1,620 as the next significant support level, corresponding to the 2021 cycle peak that has historically acted as long-term structural support. A weekly close below that level would likely accelerate selling toward the $1,200 range.

ETH traded at $1,738 at press time, down 3.1% over 24 hours.